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Prediction for CME (2023-09-01T23:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-09-01T23:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26731/-1 CME Note: CME associated with a flare and filament eruption in the SE region S21E44, with eruption starting after 22:14Z. The filament is best seen erupting in 304 (AIA/SUVI) imagery. Arrival Signature: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 5nT to 9nT, reaching a maximum near 10nT. Accompanied by an increase in speed from 380 km/s at 2023-09-05T14:38Z to ~450 km/s at 15:11Z with subsequent increases in density and temperature. This shock likely corresponds to the arrival of CME 2023-09-01T23:12Z and is also observed at STEREO A starting around 2023-09-05T10:50Z. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-05T14:38Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 4.0 Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-05T12:30Z Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0 Prediction Method: Average of all Methods Prediction Method Note: This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -11766.30 hour(s) Difference: 2.13 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z |
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